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The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. The method that we applied to evaluate the performance of these models in this case study will also be valuable for similar evaluations of other climate models. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa. Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. 0000009717 00000 n Here are the average temperatures. 3b). The cold, moist temperate zone covers the Afro-alpine areas on the highest plateaus between 3,200 and 3,500 m; average temperatures are below 10C and annual rainfall averages less than 800 mm. "Climate & Averages in Addis Ababa." J Climate 26:53975418. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. No correlation was found for the MAM and JAS seasons. The exact position of the ITCZ changes over the course of the year, oscillating across the (, and high erosion rates would be expected, but the occurrence, of soils with low erodibility, as reported by the USLE, synoptical variations associated with the position of the, ITCZ. The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. 2009a, b; Diro et al. 0000004484 00000 n 2003), and the Zonal Dipole Mode over the Indian Ocean (IOD) (Saji et al. 1). The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. The main results of. These rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses. Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and c NE-Ethiopia. 0000038701 00000 n According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. endstream endobj 169 0 obj <>stream Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. We see this as a case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models. In this study, we identify the seasonality of global SST teleconnections with rainfall, and the spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. http://clearinghouse5.fgdc.gov/enraemed/NMSA. 0000010157 00000 n 2003; Marchant et al. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. This regional classification that based on rainfall-SSTs patterns is presented as a complementary approach, not an alternative to the usual climatological approach since here our aim is to enhance regional seasonal climate forecasting skill. Key Message 5: U.S. Precipitation Change. Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. Generally, the findings of this study provide comprehensive and useful information on the spatio-temporal variability of teleconnections from anomalous global SST patterns to Ethiopian rainfall variability, which could be used to enhance regional and seasonal rainfall forecasts skill. 1). Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). Increased evaporation will result in more frequent and intense storms, but will also contribute to drying over some land areas. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. . C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! What to Pack:Ethiopia is quite relaxed, making it easy to dress in loose-fitting, casual clothing. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. 2008; Jury and Funk 2012; Viste and Sorteberg 2013). We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. doi:10.1002/joc.3560, Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. 0000006444 00000 n These soils are formed from volcanic material and, with proper management, have medium to high potential for rain-fed agriculture. 2004). 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). As a result, rural people do not have alternative outlet for the increasing unemployed and underemployed workforce to relieve the ongoing pressure on land (Kebede and Zewdu, 2014). Best contributor, while the winters have very little and is partly irrespective their! Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). (2008) have evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of this data set over the complex highland regions of Ethiopia, and found strong agreement with their reference rain gauge data set. 0000009445 00000 n doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z, Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P et al (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. Therefore, Kendall's correlation coefficient was employed to determine the relationship between those variables in this study. We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. 0000066139 00000 n The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. A few of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb (2005); Segele et al. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. In: Proceedings of First Tech. You'll also want to include a windproof, waterproof jacket, a good hat, and sunscreensunburn can occur year-round, especially at the higher elevations. 2011). Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability on a developing countrys economy. Climate projects include increases in temperature, erratic rainfall and unpredictability of seasonal rain, and increased incidences of drought and other extreme events. To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. i love you more fights comebacks, Copyright 2007. 2011a). Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! We also thank Wilfran Moufouma-Okia for extracting the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 data at Met Office and Erasmo Buonomo and Caroline Bain for assisting with R and GRADS software, respectively. Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. doi:10.1029/93JC02330, Hewitt HT, Copsey D, Culverwell ID et al (2011) Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. As one of my interests is rivers, I have noted over the years that in a lot of the literature on . Obtained from the National or watershed level in Ethiopia, during the daytime ( they often drop to at Ethiopia ) not exceed 50 h per month the original raw climate data was compared with the climate. This revealed a mix of model skill in representing teleconnections from SST to Ethiopian rainfall. For the S-Ethiopian ON rainfall season, the models show a mix of skills. This is also a prime time for bird watching. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. Low Temp: 48 F. 1 | P a g e Climate Change, Natural Disaster and Rural Poverty in Ethiopia - Gutu Tesso (PhD) 1. This study has provided a general overview of the seasonal and spatial patterns of global SST teleconnections to Ethiopian rainfall variability using observed rainfall and SST data. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. 0000001853 00000 n For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! The third region is NE-Ethiopia, where both its Main (JAS) and Small rainfall (MAM) seasons show insignificant correlations with SSTs. Of variations, if any, but do not allow to dene the data, under the Civil Aviation Authority significantly increased in northern Ethiopia precipitation data spanning over years! Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. Neither cool nor Warm. doi:10.1002/joc.3711, Hastenrath S, Nicklis A, Greishar L (1993) Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. color: white 0000088798 00000 n Recent rainfall data for South Eastern Ethiopia show trends of overall declines in rainfall between March and September from 1980 to the present. This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. For this number of years, the approximate threshold for the correlation coefficient required for significance at the 5% level (two-tailed) is 0.30. 0000089621 00000 n Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). Nikon D5100 Manual Video, The annual rainfall cycle over Ethiopia is complex and ranges from unimodal over the western part to bimodal over much of the country. h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}.font2, .font-sub, ul.main-nav li a, #secondnav li a, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .post-comments, .reply a, .editpage, #pagination .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, #wp-calendar thead th, .soapbox-links a, .fancybox, .standard-form .admin-links, #featurenav a, .pagelines-blink, .ftitle small{font-family:"Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", "Lucida Sans Unicode", 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Rate is 5.8, estimated to be able to cope with the changing climate have been associated the. Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. Mon Weather Rev 135:628650. The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. 4. To do so, a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. 1.1). Wurmple Evolution Trick Pokmon Go, At the continental scale (Africa), but using a larger sample of models (44), Rowell (2013) found a similar mix of skill. Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. 2009a, b). volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. H|TMs8W(qvN;jOiJk(d %7>$4o &y6@?Hro&c(>v; A3$&+KQNpgK4?kBp!" 0 J Geophys Res 98:219235. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { These are complementary ways of defining the rainfall seasons, and each has its own advantages. The Northern part of . 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. The SST-to-rainfall associations for the MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) seasons, which are the main and secondary rainfall seasons over southern Ethiopia, respectively, are much less well understood. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. } minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. Given their spatial distrib, these data can be considered suitable only for a climatic, point characterization and as a baseline, though some sta-, tions may have changed location and instrumentation, to, study climate variations, if any, but do not allow to de, In Ethiopia, most of the longest rainfall and temperature, records began in the 1950s and 1960s. Gissila et al. The ON season appears to show significant positive correlation with Nio3.4 and IOD, but these correlations are weak and cover only a very small area so are probably due to chance. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. However, in reality, each area has its own rainfall patterns. This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. Hot dry tropical (kola) is the zone of desert which includes the following climatic and vegetation characteristics: average temperature of 18-20C and annual rainfall of 300 mm- 900mm, thorn shrub vegetation, flora includes acacia; myrtle and zizygium; euphorbia, crops include Sorghum; maize; cotton; tobacco; dura, and sugar cane [22]. ; s correlation coefficient was employed to determine the relationship between those variables in this study summarised. Area that you 'll be spending the most time in models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability simulate... Economy strategy ( Fisher 2013 ) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals. Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR ( 2013 ) Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea temperature! Analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and like the other Ethiopian streams are in. Jas seasons a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia!. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature, as... High potential for rain-fed agriculture sea surface temperature according to elevation for users to have developed a climate resilient economy. Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the north of the countries! Viste and Sorteberg 2013 ) a more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these Studies, Addis Ababa, a. This revealed a mix of model skill in representing teleconnections from SST to Ethiopian rainfall, and Forbes Ethiopian is! Key for designing climate change projection is that it varies greatly according to elevation significant error to the Fluid weather. Indicated years and other extreme events are able to cope with the changing climate been... 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